WHAT IF NETWORK COMPUTER DOES NOT SUPPORT WINDOWS?

According to Zona Research Inc. in Redwood City, Calif. the combination of Sun, Oracle, Netscape, and IBM aims to stimulate Java and Internet-based applications development for the Network Computer. However, the business model for making money is not clear, thus presenting the group its first big hurdle.

Today software developers have a distinct means of deriving revenue for software they develop. They sell the software to individual users. Furthermore, they continue making money on each new version of the software, often if not always from their existing customers.

Then there is the whole matter of applications developers to support a Java effort. Microsoft has a large base of developers familiar with its tools and APIs. By contrast, Sun’s pure-Java efforts, seemingly aim at a broad base, but are more effective with Unix-oriented developers.

Zona says it is not sure there is sufficient platform or tool critical mass yet that will allow Java to overtake Windows APIs as the primary development technology. “At this point, we see most of Java’s impact being on Motif developers,” the company declares.
However, “we may see application development by companies such as Sun, Oracle and IBM, who can subsidize development costs in the name of selling more hardware or database technology,” the company says. It cites IBM’s recent announcement of Cryptolopes that supports pay-by-use, as a key component in stimulating ISV development of Internet applications.

In addition, Zona cites the recent Supreme Court decision on Lotus v. Borland relating to copying a program command and interface structure as another possible solution. It now may be possible to create exact knock-offs of key applications such as Microsoft’s Office. Thus, the network computer backers can offer compatible applications, thus overcoming a key barrier to using a non-Windows device.

Prior to the network computer initiative, Microsoft, HP, Novell, IBM, and others announced they would include Java class libraries in their operating systems. Embedded Java in Windows 95 assures developers that Java applets will be supported on most systems. Thus, what more does the Java initiative provide.

Also, with the network computer, software is part of the service and a user is charged either a flat monthly fee or is charged per use. Zona says without a way to receive payment, it is unlikely that there will be significant development of Internet applications by independent parties. However, there are several ways applications development might occur.

The market research firm sees NC Reference Profile devices replacing current non-windows devices in the enterprise, for example X-terminals. For the home, network computers may likely be delivered as part of a telephone or cable TV service. “We see home network computers as the 1996 version of the Minitel, except driven by the Internet instead of videotext, ” the company concludes.

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