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ETHERNET CREATOR PREDICTS A TEMPORARY INTERNET CATASTROPHE
When he worked at Xerox in the late 1970s Dr. Robert Metcalfe,
invented the Ethernet. Today, the vice president of technology for International
Data Group (IDG) and executive correspondent for InfoWorld, an IDG publication
is predicting a remission for the Internet in 1996. He suggests that
amidst high expectations from the public, industry and the government,
the Internet “is going to suffer catastrophic collapses in 1996,
at least temporarily.”
However, Metcalfe is confident the network will survive. “(The
Internet) is going to come out the other side,” he says, with
substantial contributions to economic growth and educational opportunity
the most important outcomes of the Internet’s growth. The Internet
will broaden the horizons of its users, Metcalfe claims, “putting
people in touch with remote and distant places ... (inspiring users
to have) higher ambitions and see ways to succeed.”
Metcalfe also offered the following observations:
* The application of existing technologies in the Internet offers the
prospect of not decreased but increased personal privacy. This is contrary
to conventional wisdom that such privacy is threatened by Internet growth;
• Digital transactions in which Internet users make “micro
payments” for information obtained over the Internet, will complement
advertising as a major source of revenue for information providers;
• The key to ensuring the broadest possible public access to the
Internet is not to increase the role of well-meaning governmental organizations
but rather to encourage a vibrant, commercial, competitive environment.
“Right now it is reasonable (for someone) to say, ‘I don't
want anything to do with (the Internet) because it’s too expensive
and too hard to use,’” Metcalfe says. But “as the
Internet improves, as we package it better and make it cheaper ... then
I think it’s for everybody, like television, like the telephone.”
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